XRP price fell to its lowest level in four months on Wednesday, hitting $1.14. The decline contributed to a broader period of weakness across crypto, and chart analysis and on-chain indicators now point to a more bearish environment for the altcoin.
XRP Price Falls Below Key Averages
Market expert Sam Daodu, in a new analysis of the factors behind this move, argued that there is currently little to fall back on. One of the most immediate issues is that of trend structure.
According to According to Daodu,
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He noted that the weekly exponential moving averages (EMA) are higher, clustered between $1.50 and $1.78, which has effectively capped each rebound attempt. This means that even when XRP rebounds, buyers have struggled to push it out of this upper resistance band.
The outlook also looks challenging when comparing XRP price to the 200-day moving average, a level Daodu sees as a dividing line between bullish and bearish regimes.
The expert placed this key reference price at around $1.64, describing it as a “long rally” from current trading levels of around $1.17 at the time of writing, highlighting how the asset would likely need to rally to return to a more constructive trend.
Whale removals reach 4-year low
On-chain activity adds another layer of concern regarding the price of XRP. Whale withdrawals from Binance – often seen as a quieter bullish sign because it may indicate large holders are removing assets from exchanges to hold for the long term – have declined sharply.
Over the past 30 days, whale withdrawals have fallen to around 978 million XRP, which Daodu described as the lowest figure since 2021, essentially a four-year low.
During the same period, CryptoQuant data indicates that accumulation by large miners has stalled, implying that large miners are not adding with conviction during this decline.
With this in mind, the bearish Daodu setup focuses on three key price points. The first is $1.14, which he considers the near-term technical target. The second is $1.11, the February low.
The third is $1, aligned with the monthly Bollinger floor and treated as a potential endpoint if selling pressure persists. He also pointed out that if macroeconomic conditions do not improve and whales continue to show reluctance to accumulate, these levels could become the next stops.
What does recovery depend on?
Daodu also suggested that the path forward could depend on three factors. The first is whether XRP price can defend $1.14. If it holds, the bullish case can still play; if it breaks, he expects the move could extend to $1.11 and potentially into the $1 zone.
The second factor is the floor vote for the CLARITY Act. A vote scheduled before the August holidays would help clarify the regulatory situation, while no vote could deepen disappointment and increase existing macroeconomic pressure.
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The third factor is whale behavior again, specifically, if whale withdrawals from Binance start to climb back above the current figure of 978 million XRP over the last 30 days. An increase in withdrawals above this level would indicate further accumulation by larger holders.
Even with these bearish indicators, Daodu cautioned that the decline is not necessarily related to XRP-specific fundamentals. He argued that the price of XRP had fallen in line with the rest of the market, meaning the next phase would likely depend on how broader market conditions evolve.
Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com
