XRP Supply Shock? Billions leave Binance but prices struggle

XRP reserves on Binance have fallen 45% in a year, while on-chain data shows trends similar to the 2022 downturn, prompting investors to be cautious.

Billions of dollars in XRP have quietly left Binance over the past year. This significant change in supply is attracting attention in the crypto market. On-chain data suggests that certain patterns could repeat themselves, as price pressure continues to weigh on XRP.

XRP supply drops 45% on Binance

Binance’s XRP reserves have fallen by almost 45% in just 12 months. According to analyst Niels, assets fell from $10.16 billion to $5.55 billion. This change reflects a massive transfer of XRP out of the exchange and into private wallets.

This trend suggests that fewer holders are looking to sell in the short term. The steady decline in foreign exchange balances could indicate that long-term storage is becoming more common. As Niels explained,

Something big is happening with $XRP provide.

Binance alone saw its XRP reserves drop by almost 45% in one year.

From $10.16 billion to $5.55 billion.
This represents a massive amount of coins leaving exchanges and being stored for the long term.

Less supply on the exchanges usually means a… pic.twitter.com/P30AEL7JHI

–Niels (@Web3Niels) January 20, 2026

Beneath the surface, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s current setup resembles that of early 2022. At that time, prices fell from $0.78 to below $0.30 over several months. The current structure shows new investors buying at lower levels than long-term holders.

Glassnode noted,

“The psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.”

This dynamic occurs when recent buyers hold gains, while older positions are in deficit. If prices do not recover, some long-term holders may choose to exit.

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Since mid-2025, the $2 price zone has triggered significant realized losses, according to Glassnode. Repeated testing in this area resulted in weekly losses of $500 million to $1.2 billion. This has become a level where many traders choose to sell.

Prices fall as volume decreases

XRP hit a multi-month high above $2.40 earlier in January but has since fallen back. The token lost $2 support on Monday and fell to $1.84 before recovering to around $1.90. Over the past 7 days, XRP has declined by over 11% (according to CoinGecko data).

Analyst Steph Is Crypto wrote:

“$XRP price weakness is occurring due to declining volume, just like in 2021-2022.”

A decline in trading volume during a downtrend can indicate a decrease in buyer interest, which can further slow momentum.

Meanwhile, US-based XRP ETFs saw their biggest outflows yet this week, as we recently reported. Data shows investor activity is falling sharply, with more capital leaving the market amid growing global tensions and economic uncertainty.

The compression phase can precede a movement

Analyst Egrag Crypto shared an XRP/BTC chart that shows compressed price action, as well as tight moving averages. This type of pattern, called compression, can lead to expansion once a clear direction forms. Egrag explained,

“It’s not noise. It’s a tightening of the structure.”

According to their article, XRP is now moving between support and resistance in what they described as a bullish rectangle. Although not yet in an uptrend, the pattern reflects possible accumulation after a decline.