Data from CoinGecko revealed that Bitcoin has outperformed during US holidays in 11 of the last 14 calendar years analyzed historically.
A new study from CoinGecko found that purchasing Bitcoin on U.S. holidays has historically generated much higher short-term returns than typical trading days.
The analysis examined Bitcoin futures returns on different calendar days between May 1, 2013 and May 8, 2026, focusing on single-day gains after purchase.
BTC’s Strongest Rallies Over the Next Day
According to the data, U.S. holidays saw an average next-day Bitcoin return of 0.77%, compared to just 0.19% outside of holidays. CoinGecko found that holidays outperformed normal days in 11 of the 14 calendar years included in the study. Among normal weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays had the highest average return for the next day at 0.38%, while Thursday was the only day to produce a negative average return of 0.09%.
The report identifies New Year’s Eve as the best-performing holiday for Bitcoin purchases, with an average next-day return of 2.01% over 13 observations and a win rate of 84.6%, meaning Bitcoin rose next day in 11 out of 13 years. Columbus Day posted the same win rate of 84.6% with an average return of 1.70%, while Christmas generated an average next-day gain of 1.46% with a rate of 53.8% victory.
CoinGecko said the New Year’s trend could indicate the broader January momentum effect often seen in traditional financial markets, where investors deploy new capital at the start of a new year. The study adds that Bitcoin could also benefit from a move away from tax-loss selling in December in favor of renewed positioning in January. The report notes that Bitcoin’s price on January 1 ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, but the trend of gains the next day remained relatively consistent throughout the period.
However, not all vacations have brought positive results. Martin Luther King Jr. Day had the weakest performance with an average negative return of 0.84% the next day, largely influenced by Bitcoin’s 18.65% decline after January 15, 2018, at the start of the cryptocurrency bear market. Independence Day also had a negative average return of 0.26%. Veterans Day posted an average gain of 1.75%, but CoinGecko warned that this figure was skewed by a few unusually large rallies, while the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.
The study also found little significant difference in Bitcoin performance between weekdays and weekends. Weekdays averaged a positive return of 0.21% the next day, compared to 0.22% on weekends, which CoinGecko described as statistically insignificant due to Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading structure.
You might also like:
Over a one-year holding period, the day of purchase had virtually no impact on long-term returns, with average annual gains across all days of the week remaining within a narrow range of 2.4 percentage points. CoinGecko added that while holiday purchases also showed slightly higher year-over-year returns, the effect was likely indicative of broader market cycles rather than a continuing holiday-driven trend.
Multiple pressures hit Bitcoin
As for Bitcoin’s latest price action, the asset is currently trading above $80,000 after briefly slipping below that level earlier this week. Market experts said the decline was due to several pressures hitting the market simultaneously. On-chain data showed that Bitcoin exchange outflows fell sharply ahead of the sell-off, leaving more coins on trading platforms and increasing the supply available on the sell side.
At the same time, derivatives traders were aggressively building short positions while leveraged long exposures remained high. Once prices began to fall, a wave of long liquidations accelerated the decline. Growing inflation concerns following new US CPI and PPI data, as well as strong Whale selling, added further pressure to the market.
