Bitcoin News Today: The price collapsed to $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024, after a higher-than-expected inflation figure effectively buried expectations for a short-term rate cut from the Federal Reserve and triggered more than $1.26 billion in crypto liquidations among 209,000 traders.
The sell-off was strong enough to re-evaluate prediction markets overnight: On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform where traders bet real money on outcome probabilities, the odds of Bitcoin reaching $50,000 before the end of the year jumped to 65%.
The central tension the data now imposes: Is this a high-velocity surge that sparks a rally, or the first chapter of a BTC bear market that sends the price tumbling into the $40,000s? The answer probably depends on a building in Washington, D.C., and whether the Fed’s July meeting will provide any relief.
(SOURCE: Polymarché)
Bitcoin News Today: Hot PCE Print Caused Over $1 Billion in Liquidations
The catalyst for recent market moves was Thursday’s PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric for measuring consumer inflation. In May 2026, the PCE price index increased to 4.1% year-on-year, beating expectations, while the core PCE was 3.4%.
These numbers have significantly reduced the odds of a rate cut, as accelerating inflation weakens the case for lower interest rates, leading risk assets like Bitcoin to adjust quickly.
As a result, a BTC flash crash occurred, liquidating over $1.26 billion in crypto positions across major exchanges, impacting 209,000 traders. This forced deleveraging, rather than organic sales, has been the cause of much of the volatility and is crucial to understanding the path to recovery.
BREAKUP
US PCE inflation just came in at 4.1%, exactly in line with expectations and the hottest reading since April 2023.
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and at 4.1%, it is now more than double the Fed’s 2% target.
This is the number that quietly… pic.twitter.com/t0Pkaxqeid
— Cryptographic Jargon (@Crypto_Jargon) June 25, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: Join 99Bitcoin’s 1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit
What Polymarket’s numbers really say about Bitcoin
Polymarket is a prediction market in which real money reflects probability estimates, making its odds more reliable than Twitter polls. Bitcoin price contracts showed a significant downtrend on Friday.
(Source – Polymarché)
The probability of BTC falling to $55,000 this year was 77%, while the probability of it hitting $50,000 was 65%. The 12 percentage point gap between these numbers indicates that traders view the breakout of $55,000 as the base case, with $50,000 a more likely extension.
Notably, the $55,000 contract recently jumped about 20 percentage points, suggesting a shift in trader sentiment toward a deeper decline.
However, there is also a 60% chance that Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000 by the end of the year. This reflects the belief in a significant slowdown followed by a recovery, raising the possibility of both hitting $50,000 and then surpassing $70,000 over the course of the year.
FIND OUT: Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Hold $60,000 or Drop to $50,000?
BTC Support Levels That Now Define Trading
$BTC hit a new low yesterday.
And it is now back above $60,000.
The majority of this small move in Bitcoin is due to short positions being closed, which is exactly what we saw tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/luCidfbuCp
— Ted (@TedPillows) June 26, 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $59,900, recovering from a drop to $58,100. Analysts at CryptoQuant and Standard Chartered have identified a critical support zone between $55,000 and $50,000.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju sees $55,000 as a potential cycle bottom due to tightening stablecoin liquidity, with USDT inflows dropping significantly from a high of $616 million in November 2022 to just $27 million now. This trend suggests a reduction in purchasing power on the stock exchanges, increasing downward volatility.
Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin could fall to around $50,000 before attempting to climb up to $100,000, viewing the current market downturn as a mid-cycle correction.
Polymarket predicts a 65% chance of hitting $50,000 and a 60% chance of recovering to $70,000. Major support levels for Bitcoin include $58,100, $55,000, $50,000, $42,000 to $44,000, and $40,000.
Experts’ Bearish Targets: How Low Is It?
In other Bitcoin news today, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, set a minimum Bitcoin target of $40,000 over the next six months, citing tightening dollar liquidity and persistent inflation as factors compressing the value of speculative assets.
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Bitcoin miner and founder of BTC.TOP, estimates a higher floor of $42,000 to $44,000, with a target of late 2026. The cost of producing miners provides a fundamental anchor for these estimates, as prices below certain levels lead to shutdowns and reduced sales pressure.
Both targets suggest a continuation of the bear market, with a potential drop to $60,000 representing a -33% decline, although still above the 2022 cycle low of around $15,500.
Bitcoin News Today: July Fed Meeting Is Next Binary
WHALE WATCHING: 65.8%. This is the likelihood that the Fed will sit on its hands in July.
The rate hike engine has officially stalled. The markets are taking into account this pause and the discourse is evolving rapidly. Risks on assets are attentive pic.twitter.com/VwJKLUZfeX
– Whale Factor (@WhaleFactor) June 25, 2026
WHALE WATCHING: 65.8%. This is the likelihood that the Fed will sit on its hands in July.The Federal Reserve’s July meeting is a key event for the markets, particularly with PCE at 4.1%, making a rate cut unlikely. The focus is on whether the Fed will ease its guidance, which could revive risk appetite.
Rate cuts are important for Bitcoin because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC relative to yield-bearing assets and signal a shift toward more accommodative policy, encouraging speculative activity.
Large option expirations around the $55,000 and $50,000 strike levels could increase volatility as market makers cover their positions, potentially creating a “self-fulfilling liquidity magnet.”
Additionally, the regulatory environment, particularly with respect to CFTC preemption and oversight of platforms like Polymarket, adds complexity to prediction markets, even as the platform continues to operate and is increasingly referenced by analysts.
EXPLORE: Best Crypto Presales with Asymmetric Upside Potential in Today’s Market
The article Bitcoin Price Could Crash to $50,000 This Weekend: Don’t Be Afraid Now appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
