Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s addressable market could eventually surpass that of gold, which currently sits around $20 trillion, if geopolitical fragmentation continues to accelerate.
The claim is not abstract: Hougan’s April 2026 memo presents Bitcoin not only as a competing store of value to gold, but as a politically neutral settlement asset for a world where the dollar-dominated financial system is fractured at the seams.
This is important right now because Bitcoin rose 12% between February 27 and April 10, 2026, while the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold 10% during the same window of heightened tensions between Iran and the United States. It’s no coincidence that Bitwise is willing to ignore. The question is whether this is a lasting signal or a one-off anomaly disguised as a thesis.
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What does “Bitcoin Beats Gold” Really Mean?
The comparison of “digital gold” is mentioned so often that it loses most of its meaning. Here’s what it really implies: Gold has value primarily because no government controls it, it’s rare, and it has a 5,000-year track record as a store of value. Bitcoin makes the same pitch – fixed supply of 21 million coins, no central issuer – but adds two things that gold cannot offer: it crosses borders instantly and settles without a bank.
Hougan’s thesis goes even further. It presents Bitcoin’s valuation as two bets stacked on top of each other. The first is the standard digital gold bet: Bitcoin capturing a portion of the $20 trillion gold market as institutions diversify.
The second is what he calls an out-of-the-money call option – the speculative possibility that Bitcoin could become a neutral settlement layer for countries that have been cut off from the Swift system or are deliberately avoiding it.
JUST IN:
Iran will require ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in Bitcoin, the FT reports. pic.twitter.com/6yoIEys139
– Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 8, 2026
Iran will require ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in Bitcoin, the FT reports. It is in this second bet that the Iranian angle comes into play. There have been reports of a proposal, flagged by the Financial Times, that an Iranian oil export spokesperson imposed a toll of $1 per barrel of Bitcoin for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Whether it will ever materialize is not the question. The fact that this is being offered tells you something about where the pressure is pointing. You can follow the broader geopolitical context around US-Iran tensions and Bitcoin’s response to sanctions pressure to learn more about why this dynamic is gaining traction.
Why the conflict-driven Bitcoin thesis is based on real evidence
The 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war has provided the world with an unanticipated case study of what happens when a major economy is cut off from the dollar system. Trade settlement in Russian yuan has increased from less than 2% before the invasion to almost 40% in early 2024. Bilateral Russian-Chinese trade is now more than 99% settled in rubles and yuan. Dedollarization is no longer a fringe theory: it is documented business data.
Bitcoin’s behavior during the current period of tension between Iran and the United States adds to this picture. While the broader market sold off, Bitcoin briefly rose above $75,000 and held strong, while gold – traditionally the conflict hedge of choice – did not. This is a significant divergence. Gold fell 10% in the same window. If Bitcoin is supposed to be the least store of value, it has not acted like one.
In a world where countries have armed their financial networks, bitcoin appears to be an apolitical alternative.
-Carlisle (@0xcarlisle) April 14, 2026
Institutional capital is paying attention. ETF flows into spot Bitcoin products have continued during periods of geopolitical tension, suggesting that large allocators are at minimum treating Bitcoin as a hedge worth holding alongside, not instead of, traditional safe havens. Hougan’s conclusion – that if Bitcoin functions as both a store of value and a settlement asset, a $1 million price target becomes a plausible benchmark rather than an outlier – seems extreme until you do the math against gold’s total market cap.
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Bitwise Post Says Global Conflict Could Expand Bitcoin Market Beyond Gold: Is It Plausible? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
