Additionally, there is an additional problem with this year’s Fed meeting: New Chairman Kevin Warsh could take the opportunity to start dismantling the central bank’s forward guidance.
TL;DR
- CPI for May comes out on Wednesday June 10 and PPI for May the next morning, the latest inflation rate is shown before the Fed meeting.
- THE FOMC decision arrives on Wednesday June 17, Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chairman of the Fedthe rate should largely remain at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- The risk has reversed: Fed funds futures now price in a rate hike, not a cut, as the most likely year-end move.and Warsh can abandon dot plotting from this meeting.
- SpaceX (SPCX) is set to debut on Nasdaq Friday June 12, in what would be the the largest IPO in history to one $1.75 trillion assessment.
IPC (May 2026): Wednesday June 10
The Consumer Price Index for May 2026 will be released on Wednesday, June 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. It covers the month of May and is the final CPI reading the Federal Reserve will see before the FOMC meeting on June 16-17.
April’s CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year, a second consecutive monthly acceleration and the highest annual rate since May 2023. Traders are watching to see whether May’s numbers maintain this momentum or show the first signs of moderation.
This reading directly feeds into the FOMC deliberations, and the context has changed significantly this year. Markets entered 2026 expecting rate cuts. After the recent acceleration in inflation linked to the energy shock, fed funds futures are now leaning toward higher as the most likely end-of-year move (more on this below). A warmer month of May would reinforce this price revision.
A gentler solution would reopen a conversation that is largely closed. Historically, rate-sensitive assets including BTC and ETH have reacted to CPI surprises in both directions.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USDand associated margin and futures pairs.
PPI (May 2026): Thursday June 11
The Producer Price Index for May 2026 will follow the next morning, Thursday, June 11, also at 8:30 a.m. ET. Producer prices measure what businesses receive for their production and are considered a major signal of consumer inflation.
April’s PPI numbers were significant: final demand prices rose 1.4% month-over-month and 6.0% year-over-year, the largest 12-month gain since December 2022. Two inflation numbers in two days, both landing before the FOMC meeting, give traders an unusually small window to calibrate their expectations.
Traders watching for signs of demand destruction or supply-side relief will evaluate whether April’s PPI acceleration was an outlier or the start of a trend. If the May PPI confirms April’s trend, the arguments in favor of the Fed maintaining rates, or even an upward trend, will strengthen.
If the situation reverses, the data situation heading into the FOMC becomes more ambiguous. Historically, the PPI and CPI have moved rate-sensitive assets in either direction, depending on how they align with existing market prices.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USDand futures contracts denominated in USD pairs.
FOMC Rate Decision and Projections: Wednesday, June 17
The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, June 17, with a decision expected at 2 p.m. ET and a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. This one is different in two ways.
First, this is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chairman. Warsh was sworn in on May 22, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell, who resigned as chairman but remains a member of the Board of Governors. The press conference will be Warsh’s first as president, and traders will analyze his tone and communication style as closely as the decision itself.
This decision is widely expected to stand. The federal funds target range has been between 3.50% and 3.75% since the Fed cut in December 2025, the last of three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025, and it remained there until the January, March and April meetings.
What has changed is the direction of risk. The markets entered 2026 expecting further easing. After the acceleration of inflation linked to the energy shock, fed funds futures reversed: in early June, the CME FedWatch tool assessed the probability of at least one rate hike by the end of the year above 50%, with a quarter-point hike by December at almost 43% and cuts for 2026 all but ruled out.
Second, and this is unusual, the centerpiece of the meeting may disappear. June is a summary meeting of economic projections, which normally means an updated dot chart, with the chart showing the direction each official expects rates to move.
But Warsh has long been a critic of forward guidance, and reports from the Financial Times indicate he could begin rolling back them as soon as this meeting, which could lower the dot plot’s rate forecast and remove the easing or tightening bias from reporting. Whether the dot plot will appear and in what form is now one of the biggest questions heading into June 17.
Traders are therefore watching several things at once: whether the dot plot survives and, if so, whether its only remaining cut for 2026 is erased; whether inflation projections are revised upwards in light of recent CPI and PPI data; and how Warsh charts the path forward in his first press conference.
This week’s data sequence, CPI Wednesday and PPI Thursday, comes directly into the committee’s deliberation window. Retail sales for May will also be released on the morning of decision day, June 17, at 8:30 a.m. ET, so traders will read the Fed statement with new spending data on hand.
Historically, FOMC decisions have produced large movements in crypto and risk assets, with high volatility in the hours following the announcement and press conference.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USD, SOL/USDspot, margin and forward.
SpaceX (SPCX) IPO on Nasdaq: Friday, June 12
SpaceX is targeting its listing on Nasdaq under the symbol SPCX on Friday, June 12, with stock pricing after the market close on Thursday, June 11. SpaceX filed Amendment No. 1 to its Form S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, following its first public S-1 on May 20.
Reuters reported a proposed price of $135 per share, with the company seeking to raise about $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO by amount raised in history. The previous record holder, Saudi Aramco, raised $25.6 billion when it listed in December 2019 and $29.4 billion once its over-allotment was exercised in early 2020.
The final price and conditions are only confirmed after publication of the current prospectus. Traders are watching this event for two distinct reasons. First, the scale of the capital deployment: an increase of $75 billion represents a significant liquidity event.
Second, Nasdaq’s early entry rules may make a very large, newly listed company eligible for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 after 15 trading days, which would create passive demand based on the index and independent of company fundamentals.
The listing coincides with the weekly expiration of the Deribit BTC and ETH options, also scheduled for Friday, June 12 at 08:00 UTC. Crypto traders who monitor risk sentiment will watch for stock markets to open around the SPCX debut.
Expiry of Deribit BTC and ETH options: Friday June 12 and June 19
Weekly BTC and ETH options on Deribit are settled every Friday at 08:00 UTC. Two expirations fall in the next two weeks: Friday June 12 and Friday June 19.
The June 12 expiration comes in a particularly dense data environment: the day after the PPI was printed and the day of SpaceX’s expected Nasdaq debut. BTC and ETH spot prices may converge toward maximum pain levels in the hours leading up to 08:00 UTC settlement.
The June 19 expiration falls two days after the FOMC decision and Warsh’s press conference. The post-FOMC revaluation, if significant, will constitute the dominant context for positioning in this second regulation. Traders active in the crypto derivatives market should note that June 19 is a US federal holiday: US stock markets are closed, but Deribit’s calendar is not affected.
Also on the calendar
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (G.17) will be released on Monday, June 15 at 9:15 a.m. ET, the day before the FOMC meeting. This is a secondary data point, but traders watching for signs of slowdown or stress in the manufacturing sector, in the context of the Fed’s economic assessment, might find it relevant.
The setup
These two weeks have a clear structure. The CPI and PPI on consecutive days set the context for inflation. The FOMC then meets with this data in hand, and this time the meeting could reshape how the Fed communicates its outlook, not just how it sets rates.
At the same time, there is a high-profile SpaceX IPO stock event, which brings its own reading of risk sentiment, as well as two Deribit expiration windows that frame the most important decisions of the week. Traders who think about each of these events and how each feeds into the next will be better positioned to read what the markets do in the days that follow, rather than reacting to the noise.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risks.
