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Bitcoin was hovering around $114,000 and Ethereum was trading around $4,120 early Tuesday Hong Kong time as markets entered one of the most important weeks of the year, defined by U.S.-China diplomacy, a Federal Reserve policy pivot and a busy schedule of big tech earnings.
Polymarket traders are betting big on a breakthrough, estimating there is a 92% chance the U.S. and China will sign a tariff deal by Nov. 10, after a weekend of constructive negotiations in Malaysia.
The framework, which could be finalized when Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping at the APEC summit on Thursday in Seoul, has helped increase risk appetite in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin briefly touched $116,200 on Sunday before a slight pullback, while mining companies and AI-related stocks including Hut 8, CleanSpark and IREN gained 2-3%.
However, not all the signals point to lasting relaxation. A separate contract from Polymarket puts the likelihood that Beijing will lift its ban on rare earth exports by the end of the year at just 36%, suggesting investors expect tactical cooperation on tariffs but continued competition over strategic resources.
The gap between these two probabilities reinforces the market’s conviction that Thursday’s summit will result in a political victory and not a structural reset.
In its latest market note, Singapore-based QCP Capital said the Trump-Xi outcome “could shape the near-term evolution of crypto more than Wednesday’s Fed rate decision.” The firm highlighted speculation that the Fed may soon end its three-year quantitative tightening program, a move that would inject liquidity back into markets and support risky assets.
“Any signal that this would happen sooner rather than later would re-anchor liquidity expectations,” QCP wrote.
For now, BTC remains flat for the month, putting its seven-year streak of positive Octobers known as “Uptober” in jeopardy.
The extended U.S. government shutdown, now at 26 days, has dampened the Fed’s outlook, QCP argued in its note, by limiting the flow of economic data, while investors await earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta and Google for clues on consumer resilience.
Derivatives data shows BTC and ETH risk reversals turning neutral after weeks of defensive positioning, indicating traders are less fearful of a near-term decline.
Yet, as QCP warned, a clear bullish recovery is unlikely until BTC reclaims $116,000 to close the month. With policy, politics, and liquidity converging, crypto is poised for a volatile week that could either extend or ultimately end “Uptober’s” winning streak.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin briefly climbed to $116,200 over the weekend before returning to $114,000, consolidating its near-cycle highs as traders awaited clarity from the Trump-Xi summit and the Federal Reserve.
ETFs: Ethereum held steady around $4,120, reflecting bitcoin’s consolidation as investors assessed macroeconomic catalysts and awaited confirmation of the Fed’s liquidity rollover.
Gold: Gold rebounded slightly to $4,021 an ounce after dipping below $4,000 on Monday as optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and rising Treasury yields dampened demand for safe-haven assets.
Nikkei 225: Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.38% and the Topix down 0.49%, as investors awaited US President Donald Trump’s first meeting with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- DeepSeek and Qwen AI Models Crush Western Rivals in Cryptocurrency Trading Challenge (SCMP)
- Statue of Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao Arrives in Washington DC After Trump Pardons (Decrypt)
- Apollo partners with Coinbase to ‘unlock’ stablecoin lending business (The Block)
