This week, the Ethereum ecosystem was rocked by a $654 million ETH transfer by the Ethereum Foundation. This sparked scrutiny of developer compensation, transparency and leadership, culminating in the public resignation of lead developer Péter Szilágyi and further criticism of governance practices.
Simultaneously, Polygon’s AggLayer upgrade faced launch delays and network instability, intensifying debate over Layer 2 alignment, fragmentation, and Foundation support for external L2s.
These developments, along with the volatility of the POL token migration, the ongoing struggles to balance mainnet centralization with L2 sovereignty, and the reaction to the earlier restructuring of Foundation leadership, have added new urgency to disputes over the future direction of Ethereum and the sustainable growth of its expanding ecosystem.
Ethereum family feud
Ethereum’s scaling architecture underwent a transformation from a technical sidebar to a political economy when Vitalik Buterin praised Coinbase’s foundation for “doing things the right way,” weeks after Polygon founder Sandeep Nailwal took on the role of CEO of the Polygon Foundation, issuing warnings about the “existential” direction of Layer 2 (L2) of Ethereum.
The question emerging from competing visions is whether Ethereum will standardize how L2s earn and settle value, or whether liquidity will fragment into parallel systems that flow rather than through the mainnet.
The tension crystallized through three developments in mid-2025. Nailwal took over as CEO of the Polygon Foundation on June 11 as part of a strategy reset, positioning the network as more independent of Ethereum’s rollup-centric orthodoxy.
Polygon shipped AggLayer v0.3 on June 23, improving chain-agnostic interoperability with Polygon PoS, which was expected to come online by the end of Q3, but has not happened at press time.
Buterin’s public endorsement of Base in September reignited debates over whether Ethereum executives favored specific L2s, amplifying earlier friction when Nailwal questioned the low recognition of Ethereum core developers and warned that anti-L2 sentiment could fracture the social fabric of the ecosystem.
Data from L2BEAT shows that Arbitrum and Base hold the largest shares of value secured on Ethereum Layer 2, with OP Mainnet and Linea trailing behind.
The Polygon zkEVM remains significantly smaller than its proof-of-stake chain, both in terms of total value locked and transaction activity.
Dune sequencer profit dashboards reveal that Base and Arbitrum generate the majority of sequencer net revenue after subtracting Layer 1 data costs, with Base consistently ranking among the top profit generators through late summer 2025.
Buterin’s comments on the 2025 Roadmap focus on simplification, core network resilience, including improved privacy, and a Layer 2 user experience that relies more on Layer 1 security guarantees.
These guidelines establish what Ethereum executives consider “good L2 citizenship”: canonical proofs of fraud or validity, reliance on Ethereum for data availability, and alignment with emerging standards for light clients and shared sequencing.
Polygon’s AggLayer seeks chain-agnostic shared liquidity, positioning the network alongside, rather than inside, Ethereum’s accumulation orthodoxy.
Its proof-of-stake chain is migrating to the zkEVM validium integration, which uses alternative layers of data availability.
Three Paths to Fee Capture and Market Structure
The next six to 12 months will test whether Ethereum can standardize value flows across competing Layer 2 architectures.
In a soft alignment scenario with 50-60% probability, the Ethereum mainnet captures 25-40% of gross revenue from Layer 2 fees as improvements in blob compression and data availability stabilize costs.
Base and Arbitrum retain 60%-70% of Layer 2 net profits, with the proliferation of OP Stacks supporting Base’s distribution advantage through Coinbase’s on-ramp infrastructure.
Polygon’s AggLayer connects its Proof-of-Stake ecosystem and CDK chains to drive cross-chain liquidity growth. Nonetheless, Ethereum’s native transaction flows prioritize OP Stack clusters due to canonical settlement guarantees.
The performance of the POL token in this scenario depends on the breadth of the ecosystem rather than the accumulation of orthodox credentials.
A fragmentation scenario with a 20-25% probability sees Ethereum mainnet data availability revenue underperform as activity shifts to non-Ethereum DA layers, including validiums and alternative availability services.
Layer 1 only captures 15-25% of Layer 2’s raw fees because competing liquidity centers, such as AggLayer, OP Superchain, and application-specific ZK rollups, split users across incompatible standards.
Smoothing of the maximum extractable value (MEV) on layers 2 lags behind technical deployment, which deteriorates the user experience during cross-rollup operations.
Polygon gains notoriety with chain-agnostic routing in this scenario, as the proof-of-stake migration to AggLayer establishes a parallel liquidity center that is partially decoupled from Ethereum’s social consensus mechanisms.
Reconvergence under Ethereum-first standards carries a 20-25% probability, driven by stronger Layer 2 minimalism through the use of thin clients, fault and validity proofs, and shared sequencing or proposer-constructor separation, which also extends to rollups.
Mainnet captures 35-50% of gross Layer 2 fees as infrastructure standards tighten. Base and Arbitrum consolidate over 70% of Layer 2 profit share, with OP Stack standardization and cross-bridging reducing friction for users moving assets between chains.
Polygon strengthens Ethereum alignment with ZK proofs and Ethereum data availability pathways for flagship chains while positioning AggLayer as a user experience differentiator rather than a sovereignty play that rivals mainnet settlement.
Dynamics of value capture and distribution
Ethereum investors face a revenue capture question directly related to Layer 2 architecture choices.
Increased reliance on Ethereum’s data availability (DA) and canonical proof systems increases mainnet fee capture, with blob usage trends versus advances in Layer 2 compression determining whether Ethereum’s toll road economics grow or erode.
Cross-rolling MEV markets remain nascent, but if Ethereum-aligned proposer-builder separation standards extend to Layer 2 sequencers, extractable value returns to Ethereum validators. Alternative scenarios in which MEV concentrates in Layer 2 silos reduce the economic gravity of the main grid.
Layer 2 tokens, including ARB, OP, and POL, derive their narratives from Net Sequencer profitability, creating sensitivity to monthly profit rankings that show Base operating without a native token, establishing user experience standards that pressure tokenized rollups to justify their value through revenue sharing, grants, or governance power.
Polygon’s investment case improves if AggLayer generates composability that converts to retained liquidity rather than transient bridge volume, regardless of ranking as the largest pure stack under orthodox definitions.
Monitoring AggLayer login steps and Proof-of-Stake migration progress provides leading indicators for this scenario.
Builders optimizing delivery face a pragmatic calculus where OP Stack and core infrastructure wins near-term user acquisition through streamlined on-ramps and L2-to-L2 liquidity routing.
Teams that prioritize user experience and cross-chain operability can outperform those that focus on doctrinal alignment debates, especially as cross-chain user experiences remain challenging and network effects favor larger distribution centers.
Centralization and interoperability as structural forces
Coinbase receiving public praise from Buterin sharpens debates about corporate influence in relation to Ethereum’s social fabric, especially as global regulatory frameworks, including MiCA and FATF guidelines, favor KYC-friendly L2s with clear operating entities.
Polygon’s chain-agnostic AggLayer vision competes with rollup hubs OP Superchain and ZK in an interoperability arms race analogous to mobile platform competition, where walled gardens contrast with open liquidity meshes.
The Ethereum mainnet is positioned as foundational infrastructure rather than a proprietary settlement layer.
User gravity is concentrated in networks that solve multichain problems, with leading researchers at Vitalik and Ethereum pushing for a simplified and secure Layer 1 L2 user experience.
If user experience standards unify around common implementations of thin clients and proof verification, network effects compound the benefits for larger distribution centers, including Base and Arbitrum.
Polygon’s alternative path depends on AggLayer’s ability to establish sufficient cross-chain liquidity, allowing developers and users to opt for composability over canonical Ethereum settlement.
The result determines whether Ethereum functions as a standardized settlement layer capturing predictable fees from aligned rollups, or as an option among competing architectures where liquidity and users are distributed across networks with varying degrees of dependence on the mainnet.
Sequencer profit concentration, blob usage rates, and AggLayer adoption metrics through mid-2026 will clarify the path the ecosystem takes and whether loyalty to Ethereum becomes a measurable economic metric rather than a social stratum assumption.
