During the October 10, 2025 crash, Injective (INJ) recorded a low of $2.79 on Binance, falling 77.37% from $12.11 in a single day. Since then, price action has been steadily bearish.
The altcoin has spent most of the past two months at these lows, but has not significantly deviated from the low of $2.79.
Over the past week, the token has increased by 9% and by 7.5% in the last 24 hours. Open interest jumped 10.2% in a day, signaling an increase in capital flows into derivatives markets following the improved mainnet performance, IIP-632, announced last week.
Short-term momentum may be insufficient to combat the long-term downtrend.
The injective must rally more than 50%
The weekly chart has not been a happy reading for the injecting bulls. After revisiting the lows of the October crash, the altcoin rebounded 38% in one month.
However, technical indicators showed that the momentum remained bearish. The Aroon Indicator barely saw a peep from the Aroon Up, showing that the altcoin was far from challenging local highs or setting new ones.
The CMF was -0.21. Strong capital outflows over longer time frames helped explain the weakness of the Injective token.
The weekly swing structure was bearish and the internal high (green) at $5.9 needed to be breached to signal that a relief rally was underway. INJ needs to rebound 53% from current market prices to achieve this.
As things stand, the INJ rebound is too weak and isolated to allow for buying.
Traders should not get carried away by this rebound
The swing structure on the daily chart, which in this case was the internal structure of the weekly time frame, remained bearish. As noted earlier, a breakout beyond $5.9 is required to reverse the bias.
In this bullish breakout scenario, INJ has a chance to climb back to the golden pocket of $11.29 to $13.60 before its next pullback.
Until $5.9 is breached, traders should maintain a bearish outlook. Therefore, if the rebound continues and reaches $4.66 to $5.21, traders should look to sell.
Final Summary
- The current injective rally was just a bounce that should be used for selling.
- The price has revisited the lows of the October 2025 crash, but based on the available evidence, further losses appear likely in the coming months.
