XRP has reached a technically decisive level, and the next wave of price action should clarify whether the market is preparing for a recovery or preparing for another structural breakdown. A recent move confirms that a key support has done its job, but the upward trajectory comes with strict conditions that will determine whether this support the rebound is lasting or simply a pause before a deeper drop.
The XRP bounce is real, but it’s still a test
Yesterday, famous crypto analyst CasiTrades launched into pointing that XRP’s weekend decline stopped exactly at the 0.5 macro retracement near $2.03, a level that now serves as confirmed structural support. The reaction to this zone was immediate, validating it as active demand rather than a chance price alignment. Dynamic indicators also printed bullish divergence at this low, which reinforces the idea that downward pressures are weakening in the short term.
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From a wave structure perspective, CasiTrades interprets this move as the first stage of a sub-wave 2 bounce. The accompanying chart suggests that price could rise towards the $2.24 to $2.26 range, an area defined by the overlap of Fibonacci retracements and prior resistance. Reach this area would complete the expected corrective movement, but CasiTrades emphasizes that such a rally is always part of a broader pullback rather than confirming a bullish continuation.
This distinction is essential since corrective revisions often appear constructive before failing. If XRP’s advance continues to overlap and lack impulsive force, this would support the case for rejecting resistance and continuation of the broader corrective cycle.
The trap that decides the whole situation
The key level that changes everything, according to CasiTrades, is $2.41. A decisive break above this level, followed by another successful test as support, would completely invalidate the bearish scenario. Such a movement this would signal that the bounce is no longer corrective and that XRP is moving into a stronger impulsive phase.
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However, failure at $2.41including a potential double top, would still align with a wave 2 corrective structure. In this case, macro support nearby $1.65 as the dominant bearish target.
Risk management remains at the heart of this configuration. CasiTrades identifies $2.03 as the point of invalidation of the bounce thesis, making it the logical level for protective stops. As long as this support holds, the market is in observation mode.
Ultimately, the next wave of XRP indicates which direction the price will take next, but only if traders respect the conditions attached to it. As CasiTrades frames itthe internal structure of the movement will reveal whether it is a temporary reset or the start of something materially stronger.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
