Online predictions platform Polymarket sparked controversy after saying it would not settle millions of dollars in bets related to a possible US invasion of Venezuela, drawing sharp criticism from users and observers.
Key points to remember:
- Polymarket refused to settle bets on the Venezuela invasion, saying Maduro’s capture did not meet its invasion criteria.
- More than $10.5 million was wagered before the decision, leaving traders facing unexpected losses.
- The dispute has reignited concerns about the interpretation of rules and the fairness of prediction markets.
The move follows a dramatic military operation in which Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was captured, but which Polymarket says does not meet the criteria for an “invasion.”
$10.5 million bet on Venezuela invasion collapses after Polymarket decision
Before news of the raid broke, traders pumped more than $10.5 million into the markets betting on whether the United States would take military action in Venezuela on specific dates, with the Jan. 31, 2026, deadline by far the most popular.
At least one anonymous trader appeared poised to make a significant profit, with positions in the contract worth nearly half a million dollars after the deal was announced.
However, Polymarket’s announcement that the event did not qualify under the betting terms caused odds to plummet and left many punters without the returns they expected.
Polymarket issued a clarification of its rules, noting that the contract in question specifically refers to “US military operations intended to establish control” over Venezuelan territory.
According to the company, a “snatch and extract” mission to capture Maduro, followed by diplomatic engagements, did not meet that standard.
Polymarket, aka Polyscam, refuses to pay bets that the United States would invade Venezuela…
Was this an invasion push? @Polymarché pic.twitter.com/RNLmmtc1B1
— A real finance guy
(@FinanceGuy100) January 6, 2026
(@FinanceGuy100) The platform’s interpretation sparked frustration among traders, who accused Polymarket of changing the rules of the game after the fact.
“That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state and the takeover of a country does not qualify as an invasion is simply absurd,” wrote one user.
The incident highlighted broader issues surrounding prediction markets and event definition, especially as platforms like Polymarket mix elements of gaming, finance and speculative politics.
Some critics also pointed to the timing of the large bets and questioned whether participants may have had access to non-public information about the deal, a topic that has attracted attention in financial and political circles.
Prediction Markets Hit $13 Billion in Record Activity
Web3 prediction markets have surpassed $13 billion in cumulative trading volume, marking an all-time high even as broader crypto markets cool.
This rise has attracted major players in the technology and financial sectors, including Fanatics, Coinbase and MetaMask, all of which have recently launched or expanded event trading platforms.
Against this backdrop, YZi Labs, the venture capital firm founded by Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, has stepped up its involvement in the sector.
Opinion, supported by YZi, has become one of the most surprising discussion platforms. Launched on BNB Chain in October, it saw a weekly trading volume of nearly $1.5 billion in its first month, briefly surpassing established names such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
Meanwhile, prediction markets platform Kalshi got a major media breakthrough after signing a partnership with CNN, making the company the network’s official prediction markets partner while closing a billion-dollar funding round at a valuation of $11 billion.
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