Clarity ACT News: Jefferies analysts led by Andrew Moss released a report on June 30, 2026, warning that the CLARITY Act, the US crypto market structure bill that would draw jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, faces a compressed and increasingly uncertain path to Senate passage, with Polymarket’s odds for enactment in late 2026 at 48%, down from 70% by mid-May, and there are approximately 20 legislative days remaining. before the August holidays.
JUST IN: Investment bank Jefferies warns that crypto markets could face volatility as the CLARITY Act’s Senate path narrows, with @Polymarket’s chances of passage by the end of the year falling from 70% to 48%. pic.twitter.com/WrI6iNauhV
– CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) June 30, 2026
This is not just a scheduling issue. This is a structural inflection point for institutional adoption of crypto infrastructure: the difference between a durable statutory framework and a patchwork of agency directives that any future administration can reverse.
CLARITY Act News: How the Senate Calendar Became the Central Risk
The bill was approved by the House on July 17, 2025, by a vote of 294-134, and passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, 2026, in a bipartisan vote of 15-9, before being placed on the Senate calendar on June 1, 2026.
Full Senate passage requires 60 votes, meaning at least seven Democratic crossovers, a threshold complicated by unresolved disputes over ethics provisions, illicit finance language and, most persistently, the question of whether stablecoin issuers can pay a yield on dollar-pegged tokens. These sticking points have already stalled the legislative calendar once, and the legislative calendar provides little room for a second delay.
Moss and his team said failure to move forward before August could push the bill out to 2027 or beyond if Democrats retake the Senate in the November midterms. JPMorgan issued a parallel warning earlier in June, calling the congressional schedule tight and the stablecoin yield debate unresolved. Galaxy Research has reduced its own probability estimate to around 50-55%.
Passage or delay: what the regulatory framework unlocks or loses
According to Jefferies, adoption would give banks, asset managers and exchanges the explicit statutory authority they need to scale tokenization services, custody arrangements, staking and lending products, authorization that current guidance from the SEC, CFTC and OCC comes close to but does not duplicate.
The bill’s decentralization test, which determines when a network token moves from a security under SEC jurisdiction to a product under CFTC oversight, is the legal architecture that ETF lawyers say is necessary to expand one-time approvals of crypto ETFs beyond bitcoin and ether to large-cap tokens including SOL and AVAX. BlackRock’s recent expansion of bitcoin-related ETF structures illustrates how quickly product development evolves once a regulatory pathway is established.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce on the Clarity Act: “I’m still optimistic it will get done this summer.”
“I expect this to pass soon.” 🚀 pic.twitter.com/DwiZcJwy2a
– Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) July 1, 2026
Jefferies also identified the bill as a prerequisite for reviving the cryptocurrency IPO pipeline. The CLARITY Act would create a tailored disclosure regime for ancillary asset originators, lighter than full securities registration, allowing for compliant token fundraising and secondary trading on CFTC-registered digital commodity exchanges once decentralization thresholds are met. Without it, potential issuers remain exposed to SEC scrutiny on a case-by-case basis.
In the delayed scenario, regulated financial institutions would remain dependent on reversible agency actions. Jefferies called this dynamic a drag on blockchain initiatives as compliance teams reevaluate legal risk under an enforcement-driven rather than law-driven regime, precisely the model that has governed the structure of the U.S. crypto market since around 2020, according to the JPMorgan executive.
Stock Focus: Circle, Coinbase and Bullish flagged for volatility
Jefferies expects the legislative process itself to drive volatility in crypto-related stocks, citing Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN) and CoinDesk parent Bullish (BLSH) as the top names listed.
For Circle in particular, the bank outlined mixed implications: The current bill would close the loophole that allows third parties such as Coinbase to offer rewards on USDC holdings, potentially limiting USDC’s growth in the near term, while a delay would give Circle additional runway to diversify its revenue and expand its payments network.
Source: CRCLUSD / Tradingview
Longer term, Jefferies called increased competition from bank-issued stablecoins Circle’s most important structural risk, one that legislation neither creates nor addresses.
We suspect that the market has not fully priced in the asymmetry between these two scenarios, given that market prediction probabilities are now near the coin-flip while sector stocks have not been proportionally revalued to reflect the base case of a prolonged regulatory void. The publication of the text in July and the timetable for the vote in the Senate will be the next concrete signal indicating whether this gap is narrowing upwards or downwards.
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Neil is a professional cryptocurrency content writer with years of experience. He has written for various cryptocurrency websites to report on the latest news and has been hired by all kinds of cryptocurrency projects, to create content that would increase their visibility and attract more potential investors.
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