TL;DR
- THE Federal Reserve concludes its June meeting on June 17with the tariff decision to 2:00 p.m. ET and chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference in 2:30 p.m. ET. Market price approximately 99% chance of no changenow the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- PCE inflation in May and the final estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2026 free together 8:30 a.m. ET June 25the first major reading of inflation in Warsh’s new communications framework.
- Two indicator results calls arrive mid-week: FedEx on June 23 And Micron on June 24each providing an indirect reading of global trade volumes and demand for AI infrastructure.
- THE Quarterly Expiry of Deribit’s BTC and ETH Options settles down June 26 at 08:00 UTC, one day after PCE, while US stock and bond markets close on June 19 For Juneteenth.
Two events will anchor the next two weeks of market development data. This afternoon, the Federal Reserve wraps up its June meeting and its chairman, Kevin Warsh, holds his first press conference. Eight days later, May PCE inflation and the final estimate of first quarter GDP arrive simultaneously.
FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference: Wednesday, June 17
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day June meeting this afternoon, with the release of the rate decision at 2 p.m. ET and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
The rate itself is not the story. Markets have priced in a roughly 99% chance of no change, with the federal funds rate remaining between 3.50% and 3.75%. The Fed has paused for three straight meetings, and the case for moving in one direction or the other is unclear: Headline CPI stood at 4.2% year-over-year in May, its highest level in three years, driven almost entirely by energy costs linked to the Iran conflict, while underlying CPI rose slightly to 2.9%.
What traders are watching today is the communication layer. Warsh has publicly criticized the way the Fed communicates policy, arguing that detailed forward guidance has caused errors and dragged the central bank too far into daily market pricing. This press conference is his first opportunity to show what a different communications approach looks like in practice.
June is normally an economic projections wrap-up meeting, which would include an updated dot chart showing how the committee sees rates moving from here, but whether the dot chart appears in its usual form, or at all, is itself an open question this time around: Warsh has signaled that he may begin trimming his forward guidance as soon as this meeting.
If the points emerge and move toward a more hawkish stance compared to March projections, rate-sensitive assets could come under pressure; If projections are lowered or abandoned, individual data releases will carry more weight between now and the next meeting on July 28-29.
Historically, risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have responded to Fed communications in both directions, depending on the prevailing macroeconomic context. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USD, SOL/USDthrough the stain, margin and futures.
PCE inflation (May) and final estimate of Q1 GDP: Thursday June 25
Eight days after Warsh’s debut, the Bureau of Economic Analysis simultaneously releases two data points at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, June 25: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May and the third and final estimate of first-quarter 2026 GDP.
The PCE has often been the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator and a separate series from the CPI. When the CPI uses a fixed basket, the ECP takes into account changing consumer behavior and weights spending categories differently, and the two can diverge significantly, particularly during episodes of energy-related inflation.
The most recent PCE figure covers the month of April: 3.8% year-on-year for the stock, 3.3% for the core. The 4.2% May CPI figure provides directional context, but traders monitoring the Fed’s reaction function should watch PCE specifically, since that is the number the FOMC refers to in its policy statements.
This is also the first major inflation figure released after today’s press conference. If Warsh signals a shift toward less frequent forward guidance, the market reaction to the May PCE on June 25 could be stronger than it would have been under the previous communications framework, placing more weight on each individual data point when there is less guidance to anchor between meetings.
The final estimate of GDP for the first quarter completes the picture for the quarter. The second estimate revised growth to an annualized 1.6%, down from the earlier figure of 2.0%, reflecting a slowdown in investment and consumer spending. The final estimate incorporates updated corporate earnings data; significant revisions at this stage are rare but not unprecedented.
Both numbers are released at the same time, giving markets their most comprehensive reading of the first quarter in a single session. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USDand associate margin And eventually pairs.
FedEx Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results: Tuesday, June 23
FedEx will report its fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results on Tuesday, June 23 after the market close. This is FedEx’s first earnings report since the June 1 spinoff of FedEx Freight into a standalone public company.
Beyond the big numbers, the call’s guidance on global trade volumes and supply chain demand gives traders an indirect read on the macro environment that doesn’t come from government data.
When logistics companies see a widespread slowdown in demand, risk assets historically reflect this sentiment, even if the relationship is indirect and lagging. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Micron Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call: Wednesday, June 24
Micron is holding its third quarter fiscal 2026 earnings conference call on Wednesday, June 24 at 4:30 p.m. ET. As one of the leading indicators of AI infrastructure spending and semiconductor demand, Micron’s data center investment forecasts are closely followed by institutional desks active in both stocks and crypto.
AI capital spending cycles and institutional positioning of cryptocurrencies have moved in similar directions in previous quarters, given the shared institutional investor base. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Deribit BTC and ETH Quarterly Options Expiry: Friday, June 26
June 26 is the last Friday of the month and quarter, making it Deribit’s second quarter quarterly expiration, set at 08:00 UTC. Quarterly expirations carry significantly higher notional open interest than monthly and weekly expirations.
Timing is important here: positions that are set or adjusted in response to today’s FOMC results and next Thursday’s PCE data will reach their natural settlement point here, one day after the PCE release.
For traders active in derivatives markets, the days between PCE (June 25) and quarterly expiration (June 26) are a concentrated decision window. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Also coming
- The US stock and bond markets are closed on Friday, June 19 for June 19. Crypto markets on Kraken Pro remain active.
- Deribit’s weekly BTC and ETH options expiration also falls that morning at 08:00 UTC, meaning the reduction in institutional desk spot liquidity coincides with derivatives settlement.
- U.S. retail sales for May will be released on Wednesday, June 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and weekly unemployment claims will arrive on Thursday, June 18 at the standard 8:30 a.m. ET window.
- Nike closes this two-week period with fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results after the market closes on Tuesday, June 30, the last trading day of the quarter.
How to think about the sequence
These two weeks have a structure that is worth mapping out before taking place. Today’s press conference sets the tone for Warsh’s communications, and that tone shapes how the market reacts to what comes next.
The May PCE on June 25 is the first inflation data point to arrive under this new framework. Deribit’s quarterly expiration on June 26 comes the next day, when post-PCE positioning has had less than 24 hours to settle. The end of the quarter, June 30, adds to this an institutional rebalancing.
Active traders in the spot, margin and futures markets have a set sequence of known catalysts over the next two weeks. The variables are the results of the data and what Warsh is reporting today. Both only become visible as they happen.
This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency carries risks; please see Kraken’s full information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Geographic restrictions may apply.
The post The Fed speaks this afternoon. PCE follows in 8 days. appeared first on the Kraken Blog.
