Prediction market traders from Polymarket and Kalshi have committed more than $2 billion to the 2026 FIFA World Cup winners’ market ahead of Thursday’s kickoff. Spain and France share the favorite position as the tournament gets underway across North America.
Spain and France at the top of the board of directors
On Polymarket, as of 3:30 p.m. EDT on June 10, 2026, Spanish “Yes” stocks are trading at 16.5 cents, implying a 16.5% probability of winning the tournament. France is just behind, at 16.1 cents. England and Portugal each have an 11% chance, while reigning champions Argentina have 9% and Brazil 8%.
Polymarket’s World Cup-winning marketplace alone has attracted $1.9 billion in volume since opening on July 2, 2025. Kalshi’s version of the same marketplace added another $132 million, bringing the combined total of the two platforms past $2 billion between those two deals alone. The $2 billion milestone was crossed for the first time two days ago, between the two Kalshi and Polymarket events, and the dollars continue to flow.
The Kalshi market shows a similar consensus on favorites. Spain comes first with 17.4%, France follows with 16.1% and England is third with 10.8%.
Traditional sports betting aligns with prediction markets. Spain is priced from +450 to +480 at BetMGM, Fanduel and Draftkings. France is between +475 and +550, and England between +650 and +700. At +450, Spain has an implied win probability of around 18%.
Thursday’s opening matches
The tournament begins on June 11 with Mexico taking on South Africa at 3:00 p.m. and the Republic of Korea taking on Czechia at 10:00 p.m.
Mexico emerges as the biggest favorite in individual matches on Polymarket’s opening list, with their winning stocks trading at 70 cents to South Africa’s 11 cents. This match also attracted the most liquidity of the opening four matches, with a total volume of $1.86 million.
The Korea-Czechia match is the closest of the four. Korea trades at 37 cents, Czechia at 34 cents and the draw at 32 cents. The total volume in this market is $1.07 million.
Friday slate
Canada faces Bosnia-Herzegovina on Friday at 3 p.m. with a win probability of 54%, while the United States begins against Paraguay at 9 p.m. at even odds: the United States at 50 cents, Paraguay at 23 cents and the tie at 29 cents. The US match generated $565,840 in volume.
Disability and Goal Markets
Over the opening four matches, Polymarket’s total goal markets are tilting downward. The “Under 2.5 Goals” outcome carries an implied probability of 57% to 59% for each match. The handicap lines further confirm Mexico’s favoritism: Mexico -1.5 goal’s price is 41 cents, while South Africa’s +1.5 goal price is 60 cents.
Tournament format and stakes
The 2026 edition is the biggest World Cup in the tournament’s history. FIFA expanded the field to 48 teams in 12 groups, with the top two from each group plus the top eight third-placed teams qualifying for a 32-team knockout bracket. The tournament will run until July 19, 2026, with the final scheduled to take place at Metlife Stadium in the New York/New Jersey region.
Prediction market odds change quickly once group play begins. Portugal has reduced public interest in betting in recent days, while England and Brazil have drifted slightly across several books. Spain and France remained the two market leaders heading into the opening weekend.
