Bitcoin could bottom out during the 2026 World Cup

Researchers say Bitcoin is progressing through the final stage of an ABC corrective structure that began in late 2025.

The Bitcoin bear market is entering its final stages and could bottom out around the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which takes place from June 11 to July 19, according to a June 12 report from BIT Research.

His main thesis is that a combination of technical patterns, weak market sentiment, and easing inflationary pressure could pave the way for BTC’s next big rally after months of decline.

World Cup window could be potential bottom for market

According to BIT, Bitcoin has been following an ABC structure since the start of the bear market in October 2025. Wave A saw the cryptocurrency fall to the $60,000 to $69,000 range. It was then carried towards the $80,000 to $90,000 zone by wave B and reached almost $83,000 in mid-May before disappearing.

Today, according to the crypto research firm, the market has entered the final correction of wave C and its target zone for a possible bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000, with the FIFA World Cup period being the most likely period for this bottom to form.

On the sentiment side, the report notes that the Greed & Fear Index has returned to what it calls historically depressed levels, which it says closely matches where it will be at the 2022 low.

Furthermore, BIT analysts pointed out that the stochastic indicator has also fallen into significant oversold territory and that Bitcoin is currently trading at least two standard deviations below its weekly moving average.

They also marked the $61,576 level as potentially offering support and highlighted Bitcoin’s realized price, currently at around $54,591, as a key benchmark for where the asset becomes undervalued.

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“History suggests that while prices may briefly fall below this level, they rarely stay there for long,” the report notes.

However, the macro piece of the puzzle is inflation, and the ILO directly compared the current environment with that of 2022, when slowing inflation helped mark the low point of the cycle. According to the company, something similar might be needed this time around as well.

Where is Bitcoin currently?

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has had a rough few weeks. After being rejected near $73,000 in early June, it fell to $70,000, then $65,000, and finally fell below long-standing support at $60,000.

This decline bottomed just above $59,000 last Friday, marking Bitcoin’s lowest point in almost 2 years, before returning to around $63,000. At the time of writing, the asset had fallen back below $63,000, down more than 22% over 30 days and almost 42% from its price a year ago.

Much of this volatility is due to geopolitics, with the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran forcing the cryptocurrency to tip with each news of an attack, retaliation, or announcement of a possible peace deal.

For now, ILO researchers estimate that it may take the market another one to three months before a confirmed reversal appears. But they argue that the first whistle at Mexico’s Estadio Azteca for the start of the 2026 World Cup may also have marked the start of the final chapter of the current cycle.