Bitcoin (BTC) could begin to shake off the worst part of the economic downturn that began in October last year, according to a new study from Grayscale. The company considers February 5 – when BTC traded around $63,000 – a “sustainable” market low.
Potential Start of a New Bitcoin Bull Market
According to Grayscale, the rebound from this low has been significant. The firm’s director of research, Zach Pandl, said BTC price bottomed around $63,000 and has since climbed more than 20%, reaching around $76,000.
This level, he noted, is slightly above the average cost basis for recent buyers, which is important because it can reduce the incentive to sell after a decline. In other words, if many holders are no longer underwater, selling pressure could ease at a time when buyers are trying to regain control.
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For Bitcoin transactions in the last one to three months, Grayscale says that realized price is approximately $74,000. This implies that many new buyers are already close to the break-even point.
If BTC continues to grow in the coming days, newer participants could see positive profits and losses, which Grayscale sees as a potential early sign of a bullish market transition.
In this context, the February 5 low is not just a statistical low: it is presented as the point where the market could have stabilized enough to start a new trend. new ascending phase.
$78,000 still holds the key
Adding to the bull case, Bitcoin whales would have added around 45,000 BTC last week, the fastest pace of weekly accumulation since July 2025. Long-term holders, meanwhile, are estimated to have accumulated more than 1 million BTC over the past three months.
Glass knot data also indicates that the bullish momentum has slowed somewhat. Despite this, it still shows strong buyer interest, which could help cushion the market and reduce the risks of a sharp decline. At the same time, trading activity on centralized exchanges has increased, suggesting continued participation rather than a sudden exit.
In Bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF), Glassnode highlights an improvement in several indicators, including an increase in the MVRV ratio alongside net flow. These signals are described as being consistent with improved profitability expectations and increased investor interest.
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Combined with higher overall trading activity, the picture is presented as a cautiously optimistic sentiment shift, particularly for investors engaging in Bitcoin through regulated channels and traditional custody.
Even with these encouraging signs, Bitcoin is not without near-term challenges. BTC has slightly moved back towards the $75,800 zone at the time of writing, and it is still unclear whether it can break the $75,800 mark. Nearest resistance level near $78,000.
This price level has limited stronger upward moves towards $80,000 since January 30. The overall takeaway is that the market could be bracing for a bigger move, but the next move will likely depend on whether the resistance can be cleared.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
