Key points:
- Bitcoin price could drop 12% before finding strong support.
- History shows that Bitcoin often sees a surge within 400 days of a halving.
- Whale accumulation suggests confidence in future price gains.
Bitcoin Price Expected to Drop 12% Before Major Breakout
Bitcoin price has been moving sideways since its fourth halving on April 19. Currently trading around $58,165, Bitcoin has seen a slight decline of 1.5%. The price is struggling to stay above $60,000, and some indicators suggest that a 12% drop could occur before Bitcoin finds strong support around the $50,000 level.
This expected drop is part of a larger pattern involving two descending trendlines. These could temporarily push the price lower, but they could also pave the way for a strong breakout. If the market follows this pattern, Bitcoin price could surge to $83,450, continuing its long-term bullish move.
Historical data indicates 400-day rally after halving
Bitcoin has a history of significant price increases within 400 to 500 days of each halving event. These halvings, which halve the rewards for mining new blocks, have often led to new all-time highs. Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were all followed by significant price increases during this period.
A recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin could follow this pattern again, with a significant surge expected by 2024. This indicates that even though the market is currently facing uncertainty, a sharp price rally could occur, in line with Bitcoin’s historical behavior after the halving.
Whale accumulation reflects confidence in future gains
Large Bitcoin holders, known as whales, are showing confidence in the asset’s future. Data from Santiment Analytics reveals that addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have been steadily increasing their holdings since late July. This accumulation suggests that major investors believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, despite the current price consolidation.
However, some caution is warranted. The daily exponential moving averages (EMAs) for 20, 50, 100 and 200 days are approaching a bearish crossover. This could extend the consolidation phase, although historical trends and whale activity indicate a possible breakout.
Look forward to
Bitcoin price is at a critical juncture, with a potential 12% decline before finding key support. Historical trends suggest a strong rally could follow in the 400 days following the halving, potentially leading to new all-time highs. Whale accumulation adds further confidence in Bitcoin’s future, though near-term caution remains necessary. Investors should monitor key support levels and market signals as Bitcoin prepares for its next major move.
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