Bitcoin price is trading at $81,000, up slightly despite failed US-Iran peace talks sending forecasts and sentiment back below the bullish line. when President Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal as “completely unacceptable.” Oil prices jumped 5%, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 98, and risk assets from stocks to gold fell in tandem.
– Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 10, 2026
Trump’s rejection came after Iran submitted a 10-point counter-message asserting Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, calling U.S. military bases a “primary source” of regional instability and demanding full sanctions relief.
“I just read the response from the so-called “representatives” of Iran. I don’t like it,” Trump said publicly.
The outage sent short sell-offs in BTC, ETH and XRP soaring as traders repositioned ahead of this week’s US CPI inflation data and the upcoming Trump-Xi Jinping summit scheduled for May 13-15.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Trump-Xi Handbook
The geopolitical crypto impact of high-stakes diplomacy on Bitcoin is well documented at this point. In November 2025, a phone call between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled a de-escalation of trade tensions and injected a wave of risk-based optimism into global markets. Bitcoin rose from $68,000 to $88,000 in the weeks that followed, a +30% gain due to institutional repositioning and an increase in ETF inflows as macroeconomic sentiment turned positive.
The playbook is familiar. A diplomatic breakthrough means a reduction in uncertainty, so capital returns to risky assets, and typically, Bitcoin leads the charge. The device now rhymes with this moment, but with a reversed polarity. Instead of a positive appeal creating clarity, the stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are generating the kind of uncertainty that initially pressures Bitcoin before forcing a price overhaul.
However, history suggests that the catalyst for a recovery would be a constructive development at the Trump-Xi meeting, not necessarily a comprehensive resolution on Iran.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour range is between $80,200 and $82,500, a relatively narrow band given the geopolitical noise, which is itself a signal. The asset is not structurally failed. Immediate assistance amounts to $80,000, a psychologically critical level that has been tested repeatedly. Resistance above lies around $83,500, with a higher ceiling near $85,000, where sellers have previously re-emerged.
Compare this to the setup of the Trump-Xi Bitcoin rally of November 2024. At this point, BTC was consolidating in the $68,000 area with similarly high volume and compressed volatility before the diplomatic catalyst arrived.
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Is Bitcoin currently a safe haven or a risk asset?
The debate over the safe haven of Bitcoin resurfaces every time geopolitical tensions rise, and the situation in Iran forces the question again. The honest answer is that Bitcoin behaves like both, depending on the time frame and the nature of the shock. In the hours following Trump’s rejection of the Iranian proposal, BTC sold off alongside stocks, and gold also fell. This is classic risk-averse behavior as investors reduce their exposure across the board, including Bitcoin.
But zoom out slightly and a different image appears. Gold is down, stocks are down, and Bitcoin’s 24 hours are in line with stocks, not worse. Rare Bitcoin advocate Peter Schiff said “$95+ oil is crushing risk assets” and suggested gold has the advantage over Bitcoin as a real hedge if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. But crypto’s geopolitical impact historically shows that Bitcoin recovers faster than traditional safe havens once a diplomatic catalyst appears.
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The article Bitcoin Price Prediction: US-Iran Peace Talks Stalled Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting – Can BTC Replicate US-China $88,000 Rally? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
