Ethereum posts a modest gain on Tuesday, trading near $2,380 and holding above the key $2,300 level. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is up about 0.8% on the day and more than 3% over the past week. But beneath this surface lies a more complex story.
Retail investors, loosely defined as portfolios holding between 100 and 10,000 ETH, have been big sellers. Over the past week, this group has offloaded around 820,000 ETH. Combining this with the previous week, the total distribution of these cohort wallets reached almost 1.5 million ETH. This is a significant amount, which suggests that smaller holders are taking profits or reducing their exposure.
Much of this selling pressure appears to be coming from short-term holders. The 90-day Mean Coin Age metric, which tracks how long coins have sat in wallets without moving, has fallen sharply. This is generally a sign that it is the new investors who are selling. Meanwhile, the staking situation is not great either. Investors have unlocked around 300,000 ETH over the past week, marking the largest weekly staking outflow since November.
The whales take the other side
But this is where it gets interesting. While retail distributes, whales accumulate. Last week, large wallets added around 230,000 ETH to their holdings. This type of divergence can sometimes be a contrarian bullish signal, although it is not a guarantee. Large investors may be betting on a longer-term recovery, while smaller traders are acting more cautiously.
On the derivatives side, sentiment remains cautious. Ethereum perpetual futures showed consistently negative funding rates, even as open interest slightly exceeded 14 million ETH. This suggests that many traders are still bearish, or at least hedging their bets. Negative funding rates often indicate that short positions are paying off long positions, which is not a classic sign of bullish conviction.
Technical levels to watch
However, price developments tell their own story. Ethereum’s daily chart has a constructive bullish tone. It is holding above the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day exponential moving averages, which are clustered between around $2,260 and $2,361. This group of EMAs often acts as dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index is around 59, which is not overbought but is quite bullish. The Stochastic oscillator is in the mid-70s, indicating bullish momentum that is not yet extreme.
On the positive side, the first real test lies at $2,388, which is both the 100-day EMA and nearby horizontal resistance. If buyers reach this target, the next targets are $2,746 and then $3,411. On the other hand, immediate support lies at the 20-day EMA around $2,305 and the 50-day EMA near $2,260. Below, horizontal supports stand at $2,211 and $2,107, with deeper lows at $1,909 and $1,741.
Over the past 24 hours, Ethereum has seen approximately $38.7 million in liquidations. Interestingly, $26.1 million came from the liquidation of short positions. This suggests that a brief squeeze may have occurred, providing momentum to the current rebound. But with retail and negative financing still in play, it remains to be seen whether this is a true trend change or just a temporary turnaround.
