Is a 60% crash in Bitcoin still possible? Analyst points finger at Wall Street

Here is the scenario in which BTC could plunge to $24,000.

Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States showed early signs of progress after senior officials from both countries held talks in Switzerland.

Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said the discussions had been constructive, with both sides agreeing to a 60-day deadline to reach a final agreement. Further technical meetings are expected to take place at Burgenstock station later this week. Optimism surrounding the negotiations briefly pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above $64,000, although the asset later gave up some gains and fell below that level.

However, tensions between the two countries persist as the agreement was not signed on June 19 as promised and new attacks are occurring between Israel and Lebanon. One analyst has outlined a potential downside scenario for Bitcoin if broader market conditions deteriorate.

Worst case

Bitcoin could fall to $23,979 in 2026 if the broader stock market suffers a crash of more than 50%, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson. He shared a two-week Bitcoin chart that represented a potential decline in BTC towards the $23,980 level, based on a volume-weighted long-term support line derived from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

Olson said such a move would likely require a major slowdown in the stock market, while adding that he does not expect Bitcoin to fall to zero.

Meanwhile, another prominent market commentator, Doctor Profit, said that Bitcoin was forming a bearish flag on the daily chart, while growing market optimism was creating lower liquidity at current prices. He said Bitcoin’s recent rally matched his prior expectations and explained that prices can return to the same levels multiple times during sideways trading. He expects the asset to eventually fall into the $54,000-$56,000 range before finding a market bottom at lower levels.

A late institutional request

Between June 14 and 18, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $227 million and extended their losing streak to six consecutive weeks.

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CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost also highlighted the low institutional appetite for Bitcoin and said the Coinbase Premium Index has remained largely negative in recent weeks. The indicator compares BTC prices on Coinbase Advanced and Binance to assess the behavior of professional and retail investors.

According to Darkfost, the negative results mean that institutions trading on Coinbase are selling more aggressively than retail investors on Binance, which has created downward pressure on prices. He added that a larger price gap between the two exchanges indicates a greater divergence in investor behavior. Institutional investors are not looking to hit a market bottom; instead, they prefer to wait for better price performance and clearer signs of recovery before increasing their exposure to Bitcoin.