Summary of exchange spaces: is this a dead cat rebound or the start of a recovery?

With BTC plunging towards $80,000 Friday – leaving many American traders waking up to the carnage – then rebounding sharply through the weekend towards $90,000The question that concerns everyone is simple:

Is this real healing or just a dead cat rebound?

Matt Howells-Barby, Kraken’s VP of Growth, and Dentoshi (Den), professional trader, spent the session delving into macroeconomic catalysts, key technical levels, and what traders should reasonably expect in the coming weeks.

As always, nothing discussed is financial advice – only market commentary and education.

Macro: why it all depends on the rate cut in December

Before diving into the charts, Matt revealed the macro environment behind last week’s huge swings. In short, it’s all about falling rates and a lack of reliable data.

Here’s what happened:

• Market expectations for a December rate cut have fallen as low as 33% last Thursday — the lowest since the previous Fed meeting
• A series of hawkish remarks from non-voting Fed officials have spooked markets
• The U.S. government shutdown led to missing data sets, including no nonfarm payrolls report in October.
• The September jobs report was mixed:
  • Unemployment has increased (favorable for rate cuts)
  • Payroll jumped well beyond expectations (rate cut is not favorable)

Then the feeling changed:

• New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for a December rate cut
• Governor Waller, historically dovish, echoed the same thing.
• In a few hours, the market returned to ~77% chance from a December cut

The result: stocks rebounded and cryptos followed. BTC’s weekend rebound is almost a reflection of these changes.

Why it matters for crypto

Crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve. If money withdraws from AI stocks, it withdraws from crypto twice as fast – and when liquidity returns, crypto feels it twice as strongly.

The next major catalysts:

• IPP Tuesday (the big one to watch)
• PCE later in the week
• First unemployment claims (a key proxy while other data is missing)

A weak PPI reading could push rate cut expectations toward 90%+and a strong inflationary surprise could trigger a new oscillation in risk assets.

“It’s time to clear the cards” – Den explains why the structure has changed

Den made a strong point early on: this is the first real structural break in the uptrend.

More specifically, BTC lost the 3 day 100 EMA – a level that has held steady throughout the bull market thus far.

Previous pullbacks to this EMA had always produced sharp rebounds. This time we got a clean break.

According to Den:

“When something that has been working throughout the cycle suddenly stops working, that’s your cue to start fresh. Clear the charts. Reset the bias.”

The speed and shape of the recent discharge also stood out:

• No reaction at several major levels (annual opening, ETF cost base, prior supports)
• No “standard” bullish rebounds
• A type of breakup that is more reminiscent of a capitulation than a controlled retracement

This doesn’t mean the cycle is over, but it does mean that the market we’re in now is not the same as it was three weeks ago.

BTC: a strong rebound but a lot of work to do

BTC has pulled away sharply from the lows, but context is key.

The monthly chart

Den calls it “super reject-y.” The first obvious magnet is the group of troughs below.

The new range

Starting from scratch, Den mapped BTC into a broad structural range defined by:

• Support zone: low to mid $70,000
• Major resistance 1: open annually
• Major resistance 2: around $100,000 (mid-range plus psychological level confluence)
• Major Resistance 3: 2024 highs and local group of equal highs

BTC is now pushing back its support, but according to Den:

“We have a lot of resistance above us. It would make more sense to see a move towards $100,000 and a rejection rather than expecting a straight recovery – unless risk assets go completely crazy.”

A positive sign: the first 4-hour trend change

For the first time since the end of October, BTC has:

• Broken above the 4h EMA
• Early bullish structure established in the short term
• Removed a clean deviation and recovery from Den’s support zone

This supports a rebound of relief but does not confirm a complete recovery.

The psychological challenge

Four consecutive red weekly candles make people tremble. Den’s advice:

• Seek Strength (Level Recovery)
• Or look for logical scans of key levels
• But don’t blindly grab a knife

“Zoom in on the lower timelines. Find a structure that makes sense. Let it align with your thesis on the higher timelines.”

ETH: Oversold mid-range rebound but still a long way to go

Den joked that looking at ETH “hurts,” but the chart is cleaner than BTC.

ETH’s range is extremely well defined. The mid-range in the $2,800 held – exactly where Den expected a rebound back to the mean.

She noted that:

• The Stochastic RSI
• Cuban reversion groups
• Pure pricing structure

All indicated oversold conditions.

ETH is now pushing a local trend change faster than BTC, but:

“It’s a long way to go. The more you throw away, the more work you need to get back to the same place.”

The real test for ETH is reclaiming the level-to-level resistance looming above us; starting with the annual open, 1D EMA and quarterly range levels (not shown in this feed).

We want to take a conservative approach and not aim directly at the peaks of the cycle; it’s a step by step approach. In the meantime, everything is provisional.

What broke? Why October 10 changed everything

Matt and Den agreed that something had changed in mid-October.

Den’s observations:

• No rebounds at key high-probability levels, which is rare in past cycles
• Annual opening ignored, although it has been intact since the beginning of the year
• Breakout speed inconsistent with previous bull market pullbacks
• Daily EMAs Poised to Break Downtrend for the First Time Since FTX Crash

This does not confirm a macroeconomic peak, but it absolutely confirms a change in behavior.

BTC acts differently. Alts act differently.

The bear’s case: what would confirm a cycle high?

Den carefully outlined his criteria.

1. Daily EMAs cross the downtrend

It’s already moving, and the last time we saw it was during the FTX period.

2. Releases at key recovery levels

If BTC marks the yearly open or $100,000 and immediately fell back lower, that would be a very bearish signal.

3. Sweep between $60,000 and $70,000 and dump straight away

These levels are of enormous structural importance (2021 highs, untested liquidity). A clear break between them would imply:

• Completely broken structure
• Likely entering a months-long accumulation phase
• A path to high $40,000 taking shape over several months

It’s important to note that Den doesn’t foresee an immediate collapse to $60,000 or $40,000 in one fell swoop.

“If we ever hit $40,000 again, it will be a long hemorrhage, not a quick V-shaped reversal.”

There are many cash holdings between $60,000 and $70,000 that have not been revisited from the 2022-2023 base.

Total Market Charts: Still Up… Barely

Den went through TOTAL and TOTAL3:

• TOTAL is sandwiched between the 2021 ATH and rejected highs

• Last week’s breakout attempt did not continue, which is slightly bullish.
• If TOTAL re-enters the previous range from below, this would constitute a strong signal of structural rupture.
• TOTAL3 (alts excluding BTC and ETH) still holding on to trend support despite many alts looking horrible individually

On all graphs, the story is the same:

We wait for now, but the next move decides everything.

Macroeconomic dynamism: arguments in favor of optimism

Matt was cautiously optimistic.

If December results in even a small rate cut, it may not immediately propel BTC to all-time highs, but:

• This gives momentum
• This frees up the appetite for risk
• This paves the way for tracking the first and second quarters, especially with data returning after months of silence.

Between a new Fed presidency, pent-up economic publications and the renewed correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100, the next inflation figures will decide the fate of the first half of 2025.

So…dead cat rebound or recovery?

The honest answer:

We won’t find out this week.

We need to see:

• How BTC performs at the annual opening
• If ETH can hold the mid-range and reclaim some upside levels
• If TOTAL can hold the 2021 ATHs
• How the markets digest the PPI, the PCE and unemployment claims

Den summed up the situation:

“Something has clearly changed. The question is: to what extent and for how long?”

The next few weeks will define that. Watch the full stream here:

Stay up to date

We will return to our usual schedule after Thanksgiving with the next full episode on December 5 (or sooner if volatility requires emergency deployment).

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And try Kraken Desk if you want the graphics setups that Den and Matt used in this session. It’s free for all Kraken users.