Cardano (ADA USD) is trading near $0.16, clinging to a multi-year low with a 24-hour crash of around -4.4%, adding to a brutal 7-day decline of almost -26%. The numbers tell a story that most ADA holders don’t want to read, and there’s a detail buried in the on-chain data that makes the chart even uglier than it appears at first glance.
A recently revealed partition bug, dating back to a delegation transaction vulnerability dating back to 2022, has temporarily split the Cardano chain into two separate histories. Input Output Global (IOG) has confirmed that no user funds have been lost and node upgrades to versions 10.5/10.5.3 are underway.
But the timing was terrible. Derivatives data shows elevated short interest and Coinglass liquidation charts reveal a troubling absence of liquidity support below key price levels.
Meanwhile, ADA’s cycle peak, a brief spike above $1.20 in December 2024 during the Trump trade rally, was never close to the 2021 all-time high of $3.10. Since that December peak, ADA has lost approximately -90% of its value.
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Can Cardano price rally back to $0.20 or is a drop still to come?
Cardano Whale Play: Exit Liquidity Setup?
The Cardano ecosystem is collapsing. TVL sits at just $94 million, down 87% from its peak. Yet on June 7, the biggest whales began quietly accumulating $ADA at a five-year low.
Derivatives paint a clearer picture: the best traders are net… pic.twitter.com/CTf37LJdZY
-Robert
(@iR0bertt) June 10, 2026
(@iR0bertt) June 10, 2026At around $0.16, ADA is trading well below all major technical levels reported by analysts earlier this cycle. The 200-day simple moving average is around $0.35, more than double the current price. Resistance builds up at $0.20, $0.22, and that $0.25 SMA zone. There is no clean support in sight.
Previous analysis identified a breakout of a multi-month falling wedge, projecting a target near $0.32, but this projection was contingent on ADA maintaining the $0.25 to $0.26 breakout zone. It didn’t hold. The price has since broken through this bottom, meaning the wedge breakout likely failed.
Three scenarios from here:
- Case of the bull: Node upgrades complete cleanly, governance milestones arrive on time, TVL progresses higher. ADA could attempt a recovery towards $0.24-$0.26, the next logical resistance. A sustained move above $0.30 would signal something more significant.
- Base case: Weak sentiment and continued rotation against large-cap strata keeps the ADA range between $0.14 and $0.20 for weeks. Small bounces, no conviction.
- Bear case: If macroeconomic risk aversion sentiment deepens and short sellers accumulate, the $0.10 to $0.12 area, last seen in 2020, becomes a realistic destination. Even Cardano’s own founder highlighted the difficulty of the project in a recent comment.
The data indicates that the market is still looking for a reason to buy ADA and is yet to find one. Recent community governance frictions, including the rejection of a $2 million proposal, add another layer of uncertainty to the road map.
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The post Is it all over for Cardano? ADA down -42% over the past month appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
