Why Another Drop Could Happen This Week

Can July generate a long-awaited rebound, a drop towards $50,000 at the next stop?

Instead of a resurgence and a breath of fresh air for the bulls, the situation for the leading cryptocurrency has only gotten worse, with a 6% price drop over the past week.

The bearish environment has prompted several analysts to issue pessimistic forecasts, with some considering declines around $50,000.

How much lower?

Last week, BTC briefly fell to around $58,000, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. In the following days, the bulls regained some of the lost ground and the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around $60,000.

According to X user Chiefy, another short-term pullback could be on the horizon. The analyst claimed that BTC historically bottomed around 427 days after each cycle’s all-time high, suggesting a drop to $51,000 could follow.

AlΞx Wacy also intervened by basing his thesis on the past performance of the asset. That said, user X argued that the cryptocurrency would enter a two-year bull run or bleed for another six months.

Some figures, including American businessman and media personality Dave Portnoy, have recently floated the idea that BTC could collapse to zero. His post drew heavy criticism from many Bitcoin supporters, who said such a scenario is impossible, while others suggested that comments like this often appear when the market is nearing a cycle bottom.

The BTC halving, which occurs approximately every four years, is another key reference point that analysts use to estimate market highs and lows. Looking at previous cycles, the asset has shown remarkably consistent timing between major lows and highs, and if history repeats itself, the low could arrive between October 4 and 17, 2026.

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Of course, this is not guaranteed and depends on many factors, including ETF flows. Lately, outflows from these investment vehicles have far outpaced inflows, reflecting waning investor enthusiasm and setting the stage for another correction in the near future.

The bullish scenario

Despite the pessimistic views of many analysts and the depressed state of the crypto market, BTC could still be poised for a near-term resurgence.

First, we’ll look at the popular Fear & Greed Index, which has been in “extreme fear” territory for some time. This reflects the panic among investors and, at first glance, appears to be bad news for the cryptocurrency. However, such conditions have historically marked cycle troughs and have often been followed by major rebounds.

Next on the list is BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been hovering around 30 for the past few days. Such ratios suggest that the asset is oversold and in for a potential rally, while levels above 70 are seen as a warning of an imminent pullback.

Last but not least, it is worth keeping in mind that July has always been a strong month for BTC, with the price finishing in red territory only 4 times out of 13.